there was no parallel in history! What happened to factories in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Yunnan provinces that stopped production for the same reason?

Recently, with the policy documents of multiple underground energy consumption and dual control, all kinds of industries with high energy consumption and high pollution have stopped production and shut down. The news of production restriction and upgrading in Jiangsu, Yunnan and Zhejiang has exploded the circle of friends.

Before the Mid Autumn Festival, a number of listed companies announced power restriction and shutdown. On the evening of September 22, another group of listed companies disclosed the impact of production restriction.

Several listed companies announced shutdown

On the evening of September 22, Chenhua (300610) announced that affected by the tight power supply in Jiangsu, Huai'an Chenhua new materials Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, was forced to temporarily stop all production lines. Huai'an Chenhua actively responded to the requirements of government departments to limit power and production. The production units involved in the temporary shutdown are: polyether production unit (35900 tons / year), amino terminated polyether (polyether amine) production unit (23000 tons / year, including 500000 tons / year as a fund-raising project), flame retardant production unit (20000 tons / year) and alkyl glycoside production unit (20000 tons / year, of which 15000 tons / year is a fund-raising project).

Xidamen (605155) announced on the evening of the 22nd that due to the tight power supply, Zhejiang Province has recently implemented power load reduction for key energy consuming enterprises under its jurisdiction. On the premise of ensuring safety, it is expected to stop production for key energy consuming enterprises until September 30. At present, the company is forced to stop production, which is expected to affect the output of sunshade fabrics by about 115400 square meters.

On the same day, Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386) also announced that recently, Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission issued the notice of Yunnan provincial energy conservation leading group office on resolutely doing well in the work related to dual control of energy consumption  According to the relevant requirements of the notice, Shuifu Jinming Chemical Co., Ltd., the company's calcium carbide base in Yunnan, has stopped production in stages; Daguan Tianda Chemical Co., Ltd. and Yunnan Tianli Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. arrange production according to one production line respectively. If the policy is continuously implemented, the company's calcium carbide output will be reduced by about 25000 tons / month.

Affected by production restrictions in Jiangsu and Yunnan, almost all capacity of * ST Chengxing (600078) is limited. The company announced that the production plant in Jiangyin headquarters (hereinafter referred to as "Jiangyin plant") Due to the needs of equipment maintenance and prevention and control of yellow phosphorus price fluctuation risk, it is decided to stop production from September 23, 2021 and is expected to resume production around October 12, 2021. The production plant of Yunnan Xuanwei phosphorus Power Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company (hereinafter referred to as "Xuanwei plant") Recently, we received documents from relevant local government departments asking yellow phosphorus production enterprises in Yunnan to strengthen yellow phosphorus production control and ensure that the average monthly output of yellow phosphorus production line from September to December 2021 shall not exceed 10% of the output in August 2021 (i.e. 90% reduction in output) Affected by the above situation, Xuanwei phosphorus power has no electricity available for production and will stop production from September 23, 2021. It is temporarily impossible to estimate the time to resume production.

Meanwhile, the production plant of Yunnan Maitreya phosphorus electric chemical Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the company (hereinafter referred to as "Maitreya plant") Due to the influence of Yunnan yellow phosphorus production control, there is no electricity available for production. From September 23, 2021, the yellow phosphorus production will be greatly reduced, and the recovery time of production cannot be estimated temporarily. The production plant of Guangxi Qinzhou Chengxing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company (hereinafter referred to as "Qinzhou plant") Due to the needs of equipment maintenance and prevention and control of yellow phosphorus price fluctuation risk, the company decided to stop production of Qinzhou plant from September 23, 2021 and is expected to resume production around September 30, 2021.

*St Chengxing said that Jiangyin factory, Xuanwei factory, Maitreya factory and Qinzhou factory account for almost all of the company's operating revenue and net profit. The above-mentioned shutdown and production reduction will have a significant adverse impact on the company's order fulfillment and product sales. The above-mentioned shutdown will have a significant adverse impact on the company's annual operating performance, which cannot be accurately estimated at present.

The recent surge in the price of yellow phosphorus has led to a sharp rise in * ST Chengxing's share price, which has soared by more than 220% since July, and has recorded six daily limits in the last seven trading days.

Under the production restriction policy, product prices in many industries remained high

Before the Mid Autumn Festival, many listed companies announced that their production capacity had been affected to varying degrees.

On the evening of September 16, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. announced that since May, due to the shortage of power supply, industrial enterprises in Yunnan Province have implemented orderly power consumption, and the power load of the company and its subordinate enterprises has been greatly reduced. Up to now, the limited film has been heard, and the company has reduced the electrolytic aluminum production capacity by about 770000 tons. At the same time, Yunnan Yunnan Yunnan Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd., the holding subsidiary of the company, has completed the Ludian magnitude 6.5 earthquake disaster After the restoration and reconstruction, the phase II production capacity of 380000 tons of hydropower aluminum project was not put into operation as planned.

Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. said in the announcement that the orderly power consumption and output reduction will have a great impact on the company's key technical indicators, product costs and economic benefits.

On the evening of September 17, Shenhuo announced that due to the tight power supply, Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd. has implemented orderly power supply to electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan Province since May 10. The total power supply load of Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum Co., Ltd., the company's holding subsidiary, has been greatly reduced, forced to shut down 200000 tons one after another, the production capacity in progress has decreased to 550000 tons, and 150000 tons in the third section of the second series has not been achieved Phase start.

Driven by the policy of limiting production, the prices of subdivided products in many industries have remained high.

CITIC Securities said that at the macro level, due to the overall tight domestic supply and strong demand, the year-on-year growth of coal mining and washing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry further expanded, driving the PPI to a new high in August; at the meso level, driven by the local production restriction policy, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, coal, steel, photovoltaic The prices of subdivided products in building materials and other industries remain high. In the short term, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities under the price rise logic.

Tianfeng Securities believes that for cyclical stocks, the fiscal and credit policies are relatively clear, and the uncertainty is the range. Because the core influencing factor of cyclical stocks is supply rather than demand, it is necessary to pay close attention to supply changes and price signals. Iron and steel should pay close attention to the progress of production restriction policy. At present, the production capacity and inventory of steel mills are declining, the consumer side is still weak, and the price is low Slightly stronger and weaker heat roll. Coal should pay attention to the increase of production and supply. In mid September, open-pit coal mines with a capacity of nearly 50 million tons / year will obtain the approval of continuous land use, and these coal mines will resume normal production one after another.

These areas have a greater impact

The so-called "dual control of energy consumption" policy refers to the relevant policies of dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount. According to China first finance and economics, a number of people in the industry told reporters that since this year, the "dual control of energy consumption" has been implemented The assessment has been relatively strict, and the assessment results will be used as the basis for the work assessment of the local leadership. In the first quarter and half of this year, the national development and Reform Commission also issued the early warning level of energy consumption intensity reduction progress target and the early warning level of total energy consumption control target. The governments of various regions listed as red will greatly increase the control of high energy consuming enterprises in their regions.

According to the barometer of the completion of the dual control target of energy consumption in various regions in the first half of 2021 issued by the national development and Reform Commission, in terms of energy consumption intensity reduction, there are nine provinces (regions) in Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi and Jiangsu In the first half of the year, the intensity of energy consumption did not decrease but increased, which was listed as the first level red warning; in terms of total energy consumption control, eight provinces (regions) of Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Yunnan, Jiangsu and Hubei were listed as the first level red warning.

According to first finance, the governments of the above regions are indeed increasing the supervision and inspection of "dual control of energy consumption".

For example, Yunnan Province, which has been listed as a first-class early warning for two consecutive quarters this year, today expressed its determination through the form of accepting questions from reporters by its development and Reform Commission: in the next step, we will focus on the decline of energy consumption intensity, compact prefectures and cities, implement the responsibility of double control objectives, resolutely clean up and rectify illegal projects, strictly enforce the project management and daily supervision of "two high" and comprehensively clean up "two high" Preferential policies for industrial projects.

Similarly, Jiangsu Province, which was listed as a first-class early warning in the first half of the year, has been promoting the shutdown and production restriction of iron and steel enterprises in the province.